The finish line is in sight, but Eli Tomac can’t let up just yet.

As the 2018 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship reaches its 12th and final round this weekend, the gap between the two title contenders in the 450 Class is 20 points. That gives Tomac a nice cushion. There’s a number of scenarios in play, but as long as he finishes inside the top six of both motos at the Ironman National, he’ll definitely secure the title — a solid bet considering he’s finished off the podium in just two motos this season.

But it’s because of those two motos (36th and 9th in the two motos at RedBud) that this championship race is even as close as it is right now. It’s also a reminder that anything can happen in motocross, and Marvin Musquin still has a legitimate shot at this title.

A look at the championship standings by round (see chart below) tells the story: a consistent season for both riders, but with Tomac slightly better outside of one disastrous day at RedBud.

(Click chart to enlarge)

If Tomac successfully defends his 450 Class outdoor title, he’ll become the first rider to do so since Ricky Carmichael in 2006. But one bad break could change everything in an instant, just as it did once already this season. Stay tuned.

Here are a few other storylines to watch this weekend as the season draws to a close:

Chad Reed’s return
It’s been over three years since we’ve seen Chad Reed on the starting gate of a Lucas Oil Pro Motocross race, but the wait is over. The 2009 champion will line up for the Ironman National as a member of the injury-ravaged Autotrader/Yoshimura Suzki team. This one-race deal came about after Reed recently did some testing with the team. “Although I had not planned to be in ‘race shape’ for another six weeks, it’s an opportunity to get out and do what I absolutely love the most, which is race,” Reed said in a team statement.

Settling the standings, Part 1
Tomac and Musquin will be in the top two of the 450 Class championship standings, but who will be No. 3? Ken Roczen and Justin Barcia have been in a back-and-forth battle for that slot all year long, and that battle continues into Ironman. The two riders enter the season finale separated by just nine points. Barcia has not finished lower than eighth place in a single moto this season, while Roczen now has two moto wins to his credit.

Eli Tomac could wrap up his second straight 450MX title this weekend. (Photo: Matt Rice)

The return of El Chupacabra?
Last week at Budds Creek brought something that we haven’t seen in a while — a charge from Blake Baggett late in a moto. He made late passes of Musquin and Roczen in the second moto on a hot and humid day, giving him his best result of the season with a second-place finish. Despite sitting fifth in points and being one of just three riders (along with Musquin and Barcia) to finish in the top 10 of every moto, it’s been a disappointing season for Baggett. Can he build upon his best ride of the season?

Privateer power
All the injuries in the 450 Class this year have opened up a big opportunity for many privateer riders. We’ve seen a number of different riders who aren’t on factory teams cracking the top 10 this season, and it’s likely that at least one of them will finish the season in the top 10 of the championship standings. Kyle Cunningham, who has been enjoying a solid season, is currently ninth in the standings (just three points ahead of Cooper Webb). Cody Cooper is also lingering just outside the top 10 — he’s 13 points behind Cunningham and 10 behind Webb.

Plessinger’s farewell
With this week’s news that newly-minted 250MX champion Aaron Plessinger will be moving up to the 450 Class full-time for Yamaha next year, there are only two races left in his 250 Class career — this weekend’s Ironman National and October’s Motocross of Nations. He leads the class with nine moto wins and five overall wins, but with the title already wrapped up, this will be more of a victory lap for the 22-year-old rising star.

Hampshire’s encore
It’s been a breakthrough season for several 250 Class riders. RJ Hampshire became the latest to join that list after earning the first moto win and overall win of his professional career at Budds Creek. Considering the inconsistency of everyone in the class — aside from Plessinger, that is — backing that up with another strong result at Ironman Raceway would elevate his status as a potential contender for 2019.

RJ Hampshire went 2-1 for the overall victory last weekend in Mechanicsville. (Photo: Matt Rice)

Settling the standings, Part 2
Entering last week’s race, there were just 10 points separating No. 5 and No. 10 in the 250 Class championship standings. That gap is a lot wider now, but there’s still a ton of movement that could happen as high up as No. 3. Justin Cooper, currently third in points, could be in danger of losing that spot to Shane McElrath (13 points back) if he falters. RJ Hampshire (five points behind McElrath) is also on the rise, and any one of Chase Sexton, Austin Forkner or Dylan Ferrandis could conceivably reach the top five if things break their way.

THE INJURY LIST

Weston Peick (450MX): Will miss the season finale after undergoing surgery on his hand this week. Peick has been dealing with torn tendons all summer and said that last week’s race at Budds Creek was “one of [the] worst weekends” for his injury. With a number of team riders injured, Chad Reed will fill-in with the Autotrader/Yoshimura Suzuki squad at Ironman.

Justin Hill (450MX): Another member of the banged-up Autotrader/Yoshimura Suzuki team, Hill has sat out the last three motos as he deals with a nagging knee injury that he sustained at Washougal. As of now, he’s expected to line up at Ironman.

Jason Anderson (450MX): After missing eight rounds due to a broken foot, Anderson returned last week at Budds Creek. The Rockstar Energy Husqvarna rider finished fourth in Moto 1 but didn’t line up for Moto 2. “Hopefully [I’ll] have a little more in me for 2 Motos in Indiana!” he wrote on Instagram afterward.

Jason Anderson rode well in his return from injury, but only raced one moto. (Photo: Matt Rice)

Josh Grant (450MX): The Monster Energy Kawasaki rider has raced just one moto this season — he finished 10th in Moto 1 at Washougal — as he continues to deal with a leg injury. Grant recently wrote on Instagram that he’s “going to take the time it needs to be right” and that he’s “playing it day by day.” His status for Ironman is uncertain.

(Story from ProMotocross.com)