The final round of the 2018 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championnship is here, and the 450 Class title is still yet to be decided. Monster Energy Kawasaki’s Eli Tomac enters the day with a 20-point lead over Red Bull KTM’s Marvin Musquin, so if Tomac finishes inside the top six of both motos, he’ll guarantee himself the title regardless of how Musquin performs.

Normally that would seem like a solid bet, but today’s weather conditions have turned the track to mud. Mudders can be unpredictable, and bike breakdowns are not uncommon, so this battle is far from over.

Check back throughout the day for recaps and highlights from the Ironman National.

QUALIFYING

The rain in Crawfordsville forced the organizers to condense qualifying from two practice sessions down to just one, and also forced the elimination of the LCQs. The 250 Class therefore saw some shocking results, with privateers from Group B topping the charts and several factory riders from Group A missing the cut for the race — all because the Group B riders hit the track first. That wouldn’t be an issue in the 450 Class though, as Group A went out ahead of Group B.

So the results were in line with what you’d expect. Eli Tomac was the fastest qualifier, with Justin Barcia, Marvin Musquin and Ken Roczen next in line. Chad Reed, who is riding for Autotrader/Yoshimura Suzuki in his first Lucas Oil Pro Motocross race in over three years, was seventh in qualifying.

In order for Tomac to clinch the title after Moto 1, he’d need to pick up five points on Musquin in that moto. So if Tomac wins the moto, he’d still need Musquin to finish third or worse.

450 Combined Qualifying Times
1. Eli Tomac, 2:41.816
2. Justin Barcia, 2:43.059
3. Marvin Musquin, 2:44.266
4. Ken Roczen, 2:45.260
5. Phil Nicoletti, 2:48.483
6. Jason Anderson, 2:49.361
7. Chad Reed, 2:50.547
8. Kyle Cunningham, 2:51.197
9. Benny Boss, 2:51.866
10. Joey Crown, 2:53.425
11. Cooper Webb, 2:53.466
12. Blake Baggett, 2:54.824
13. Cody Cooper, 2:55.313
14. Justin Hill, 2:56.198
15. Valentin Teillet, 2:57.213
16. Isaac Teasdale, 2:58.002
17. Tyler Medaglia, 2:58.602
18. Jake Masterpool, 2:59.624
19. Dylan Merriam, 3:00.531
20. Ben LaMay, 3:00.617
Full Results

MOTO 1

Starting from the inside gate, Chad Reed nearly pulled a holeshot but got edged out by privateer rider Dylan Merriam and then lost spots to Justin Barcia and Phil Nicoletti. Meanwhile several riders, including Cooper Webb, went down in one of the first turns. Barcia soon took the lead from Merriam as the two riders went through some very muddy rollers, and then a few minutes later, Nicoletti moved into the lead after Barcia got stuck.

Of course the big story of the moto was Eli Tomac. After 10 minutes of racing, the points leader was up to third place and had caught up to Barcia. His championship rival, Marvin Musquin, was struggling though. The Frenchman was back in sixth place and trailing the next rider, Ken Roczen, by 22 seconds.

Barcia was able to retake the lead in the second half of the moto by using the rollers — the same part of the track he used to pass Merriam — to get around Nicoletti. A slowed-down Nicoletti, who had led three laps in total, also dropped a spot to Tomac but ended up getting it back when Tomac went down with 11 minutes to go. Tomac was then able to chase Nicoletti back down and re-pass him for second place, but by this point, the mistakes had allowed Barcia to check out. Running more than 20 seconds ahead of Tomac, Barcia was able to navigate through the mud for his first moto win of the season.

But for Tomac, second place wasn’t quite enough to wrap up the title. Musquin passed Reed for fifth place, but he still needed to pick up at least one more position to stay in contention. In the race’s final laps, Musquin managed to erase a 16-second deficit behind Nicoletti and made another pass for fourth place.

As a result, Tomac now holds a 24-point lead with one moto left in the season, with a maximum of 25 points available in that moto. In order for Musquin to steal the title, he would need to win the moto and Tomac would need to finish outside the top 20.

There’s also some drama left for the No. 3 spot in the championship standings between Barcia and Roczen. The two riders have been in a back-and-forth battle all season long, and Roczen — who was able to work his way up a third-place finish in this moto — holds a four-point edge over Barcia heading into Moto 2.

Chad Reed will also be a point of intrigue in the second moto. In his first Lucas Oil Pro Motocross race in three years, he finished fifth in Moto 1 thanks to a late-race pass on Nicoletti.

The treacherous racing conditions produced some surprising results, including Jason Anderson and Blake Baggett finishing 16th and 17th, respectively, in the moto. Anderson lost nine spots after a late fall, and Baggett fell a lap down early in the race after a crash that left him struggling to get the bike out of the mud. After the race, Anderson was docked an additional three spots for cutting a section of the track.

450 Moto 1 Results
1. Justin Barcia
2. Eli Tomac
3. Ken Roczen
4. Marvin Musquin
5. Chad Reed
6. Phil Nicoletti
7. Tyler Medaglia
8. Valentin Teillet
9. Cooper Webb
10. Justin Hill
11. Kyle Cunningham
12. Benny Bloss
13. Isaac Teasdale
14. Henry Miller
15. Ben LaMay
16. Blake Baggett
17. Toshiki Tomita
18. Josh Osby
19. Jason Anderson*
20. Joey Crown
…
35. Dylan Merriam (DNF)
Full Results

*Penalized three positions for cutting a section of the track

MOTO 1 EXTENDED RECAP

MOTO 1 HIGHLIGHT: BARCIA TAKES LEAD FROM NICOLETTI

MOTO 1 HIGHLIGHT: TOMAC GOES DOWN

MOTO 1 HIGHLIGHT: MUSQUIN STAYS IN TITLE CONTENTION BY PASSING NICOLETTI FOR 4TH

MOTO 2

As mentioned earlier, two things needed to happen in Moto 2 for Marvin Musquin to steal the championship. First, he would need to win the moto. Musquin got a decent start, putting himself into fourth place early in the race, but had to contend with some heavy hitters in front of him. Justin Barcia had quickly moved into the lead by passing Chad Reed, who had ripped his second holeshot of the day, and Ken Roczen was soon up there too.

The other thing Musquin needed was for Tomac to finish outside the top 20. A poor start actually put him outisde that range initially, but Tomac is always quite adept at making passes. Three laps into the moto, he was already into the top 10. Meanwhile Musquin was trailing the lead duo of Barcia and Roczen by more than 10 seconds.

With neither scenario looking likely to happen, attention shifted to a battle for the lead between Barcia and Roczen. Roczen kept it close throughout much of the race but was never quite able to reel Barcia in. Meanwhile Musquin encountered heavy resistance from Cooper Webb — who is rumored to be Musquin’s new teammate at Red Bull KTM for 2019 — in a battle for third place. Musquin had to work hard to get the position, then lost it when he collided with a downed lapper, then had to pass Webb a second time.

Barcia nearly made things interesting when, with two laps to go, he went down in back-to-back incidents, but thanks to the safety net of a 15-second lead, he recovered from both falls before Roczen could catch him.

Barcia, Roczen, Musquin and Webb finished as the top four, and Tomac ended up in ninth place. That result gave Barcia the 1-1 sweep of the Ironman National and his first overall win of the year, as he finished ahead of Roczen (3-2) and Musquin (4-3) on the overall podium.

It also gave Tomac his second straight 450 Class title in Lucas Oil Pro Motocross.

Tomac ends the season 16 points ahead of Musquin — nearly identical to last year’s 17-point margin of victory. He’s the first rider to successfully defend a 450MX title since Ricky Carmichael in 2006.

Even with the sweep, Barcia fell just shy of third overall in the final championship standings. Roczen did just enough at Ironman to edge him out by one single point.

450 Moto 2 Results
1. Justin Barcia
2. Ken Roczen
3. Marvin Musquin
4. Cooper Webb
5. Blake Baggett
6. Tyler Medaglia
7. Phil Nicoletti
8. Chad Reed
9. Eli Tomac
10. Valentin Teillet
11. Benny Bloss
12. Toshiki Tomita
13. Henry Miller
14. Nick Gaines
15. Ben LaMay
16. Joey Crown
17. John Short
18. Jeremy Hand
19. Nathen LaPorte
20. Kyle Cunningham
…
DNS. Jason Anderson
Full Results

MOTO 2 EXTENDED RECAP

MOTO 2 HIGHLIGHT: MUSQUIN VS. WEBB FOR 3RD

MOTO 2 HIGHLIGHT: BARCIA STAYS IN THE LEAD DESPITE FALLING TWICE

450 OVERALL RESULTS

1. Justin Barcia (1-1)
2. Ken Roczen (3-2)
3. Marvin Musquin (4-3)
4. Eli Tomac (2-9)
5. Cooper Webb (9-4)
6. Tyler Medaglia (7-6)
7. Phil Nicoletti (6-7)
8. Chad Reed (5-8)
9. Valentin Teillet (8-10)
10. Blake Baggett (16-5)
11. Benny Bloss (11-11)
12. Henry Miller (14-13)
13. Toshiki Tomita (17-12)
14. Ben LaMay (15-15)
15. Justin Hill (10-32)
16. Kyle Cunningham (12-20)
17. Isaac Teasdale (13-37)
18. Nick Gaines (31-14)
19. Joey Crown (20-16)
20. John Short (24-17)
…
23. Jason Anderson (19-DNS)

450 FINAL POINT STANDINGS

1. Eli Tomac, 527
2. Marvin Musquin, 511
3. Ken Roczen, 445
4. Justin Barcia, 444
5. Blake Baggett, 391
6. Phil Nicoletti, 311
7. Benny Bloss, 298
8. Weston Peick, 291
9. Cooper Webb, 186
10. Kyle Cunningham, 169

(Story from ProMotocross.com)